The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has revised its 2026 home sales projection downward for the third time this year. September saw a decrease in sales nationwide. Initially anticipating a slight increase in home sales for 2026, CREA now predicts a 5.2% decline compared to the previous year. This adjustment follows earlier downward revisions in April and July.
The surge in oil prices since spring has led to higher bond yields and fixed mortgage rates, impacting the market negatively, according to CREA. While there was a slight uptick in monthly activity over the summer, rising oil prices and concerns about potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada are expected to deter more homebuyers in the remaining months of the year.
CREA’s senior economist, Shaun Cathcart, described the market as a roller-coaster due to challenges such as U.S. tariffs and rising lending rates. He expects uncertainty to discourage many from entering the market this fall.
Royal LePage, a real estate company, echoes similar sentiments from potential homebuyers. President and CEO Phil Soper noted a softer fall housing market than anticipated as buyers remain cautious amid global uncertainties, partly influenced by the volatile nature of language from Washington.
September witnessed a decline in home sales, with a 2.3% drop compared to August and a 7.7% decrease compared to the previous year. Additionally, newly listed properties decreased by 1.8% month-over-month, with a consistent decline in new supply since September 2025, as reported by CREA.
The average national home price stood at $666,538, marking a 1.6% decrease from the previous year. Regional markets in Vancouver and Toronto exhibited weakness in September, while markets in the Prairies, Quebec, and the East Coast, previously strong, have started cooling off.
Despite the revised forecast, CREA anticipates a rebound in home sales next year. With a positive outlook assuming minimal rate changes by the Bank of Canada and increased borrower certainty on lending rates, CREA projects a 4.4% increase in home sales for 2027.