Health officials combating the Ebola crisis in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo are utilizing de-identified mobile phone data to track population movements and pinpoint potential areas for the virus to spread, as per the World Health Organization (WHO) and collaborating researchers.
This innovative approach, unprecedented in Ebola responses, is being employed amid challenges in containing what the WHO labels as the most rapidly escalating Ebola outbreak in history. The outbreak has affected six provinces, with over 6,250 cases and 3,039 fatalities since its declaration on May 15, based on the most recent government figures.
This 17th outbreak in Congo is attributed to the Bundibugyo strain of Ebola, for which no approved vaccines or treatments exist.
With the virus spreading, health officials are seeking ways to anticipate possible new cases and allocate limited surveillance and response resources effectively.
Olivier Le Polain, head of epidemiology and analytics for the WHO Health Emergencies Programme, emphasized the significance of population movements during outbreaks, particularly in the current crisis.
Rather than solely focusing on outbreak epicenters, traditional risk assessments, and assuming the virus would spread to nearby areas, analyzing mobility data enables responders to identify risks in geographically distant yet closely connected regions due to travel patterns.
For instance, in Ituri province, significant population movements linked to mining and trade activities play a crucial role in understanding the outbreak’s spread.
Swedish non-profit Flowminder conducts the analysis using anonymized records generated when mobile phone users connect to telecommunication networks, which show their travel patterns. The data is provided free of charge by Vodacom, the largest telecom operator in Congo.
Flowminder founder Linus Bengtsson clarified that the organization receives aggregated and anonymized records, ensuring individual subscriber data privacy.
Initial analysis by Flowminder in June focused on Bunia, Mongbwalu, and Rwampara, the believed outbreak origins, tracking travel patterns from these areas. By June’s end, all major destinations receiving travelers from these outbreak areas had reported confirmed Ebola cases.
As the outbreak expanded, Flowminder extended its analysis to other affected areas, including Kisangani, a vital transport hub. The data indicated a significant risk of Ebola spread to Kisangani, prompting preemptive response measures.
Recent studies highlighted connectivity between Kisangani, Kinshasa, and regions along the Congo River, underscoring the risk of transmission to Congo’s capital and surrounding areas.
The WHO’s ongoing warnings about the outbreak’s potential spread to Kinshasa and neighboring nations align with the agency’s modeling exercise, projecting a 70% probability of a case detection in Kinshasa by September’s end.
One limitation of the analysis is its reliance on data from Congolese mobile networks, providing a partial view of international border movements. Efforts are underway to engage with other telecom operators to enhance coverage and data accuracy.