A recent study has revealed that the Saskatchewan government’s choice to renovate its coal-fired power plants may result in expenses totaling as high as $46.4 billion within the next 20 years. This amount significantly surpasses the previously disclosed estimate from leaked internal SaskPower files, which stood at $26 billion over a 25-year span.
Brett Dolter, an associate professor in the University of Regina’s economics department, conducted an analysis to determine the financial implications of Saskatchewan’s strategy to utilize its coal-fired power plants as a transition to nuclear energy and the implementation of Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). Dolter’s research indicates that this plan will be more costly and environmentally harmful compared to decommissioning the coal plants and constructing a mix of natural gas facilities and renewable energy systems, which was the province’s initial strategy before the policy reversal in early 2025.
According to Dolter, incorporating carbon pricing into the equation further highlights the savings potential. Without carbon pricing on major emitters, the projected cost of sticking with coal would amount to $30.2 billion over the next two decades. However, when carbon pricing is considered, the total increases to $46.4 billion, significantly lowering the cost due to the substantial pollution associated with coal plants.
While Dolter emphasized the financial clarity of Saskatchewan’s current trajectory, he refrained from speculating on why the government opted for this path despite being aware of the costs involved.
When questioned about Dolter’s analysis, the provincial government responded with a statement that did not directly address the findings but emphasized the importance of reliable and affordable electricity for Saskatchewan’s development. Crown Investments Corporation Minister Jeremy Harrison reiterated the government’s commitment to an “all-of-the-above” energy approach, focusing on the responsible utilization of Saskatchewan’s resources while transitioning towards nuclear energy.
The decision to revamp the province’s coal-fired plants was made in early 2025 by Harrison, who underscored the potential job losses if the original plan to phase out coal had been followed. This shift in strategy contrasted with Saskatchewan’s previous efforts towards a coal-free future, including substantial investments to support communities affected by the transition away from coal.
Mayor Tony Sernick of Estevan highlighted the positive impact of the government’s decision, expressing optimism for future developments in the city. Sernick noted that the refurbishment of coal plants and the potential shift to nuclear energy could provide stability and economic growth for Estevan.
The article further discusses the legal and financial risks associated with Saskatchewan’s divergence from federal clean electricity regulations and carbon pricing policies. Dolter warned that such actions could expose the province to legal challenges, potentially resulting in significant financial losses if the coal plants need to be shut down after costly refurbishments.
Overall, the analysis underscores the substantial costs and environmental implications of Saskatchewan’s current energy strategy, raising concerns about the long-term sustainability and economic viability of the chosen path.