As Members of Parliament (MPs) head back to Ottawa on Monday, the federal Conservative Party finds itself as the Opposition, seeking to establish relevance in a national dialogue largely influenced by U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade conflict with Canada, alongside public interest in Prime Minister Mark Carney’s interactions with the White House.
The leader of the Official Opposition provided a glimpse of their potential strategy during a press briefing preceding his caucus meeting in Penticton, B.C.
“The promise of Canada is that hard work leads to a fulfilling life, home ownership, affordable food, and safe neighborhoods — that promise has been shattered after 11 years of Liberal governance,” Pierre Poilievre stated in Vancouver on Tuesday.
His emphasis was on affordability, a message that previously resonated well when Carney’s predecessor, Justin Trudeau, held the Prime Minister’s Office.
However, pollster David Coletto notes that Canadians are currently reluctant to attribute the blame for soaring prices to Carney.
“The immediate reaction isn’t to point fingers at Ottawa or Mr. Carney; it’s aimed at Donald Trump,” remarked Coletto, the CEO of Abacus Data.
Recently, Poilievre has shown an increased awareness of the significant influence Trump continues to wield over Canadians.
He recently traveled to New York, where he made appearances on both Fox Business and CNBC.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre appeared on CNBC’s Squawk Box telling Americans he won’t ‘attack his prime minister on foreign soil’ amid the ongoing trade war. Poilievre said Canadians are feeling ‘wounded’ and ‘confused’ over how Canada and its economy became a key target for U.S. President Donald Trump.
Recognizing the challenge is one thing, but devising a solution is another matter entirely.
“How do you establish your relevance when a majority of Canadians believe the greatest threat to their lives comes from the United States and feel that the Prime Minister and the Liberal Party currently manage this situation best?” Coletto questioned.
Coletto, who closely observed the Conservatives’ previous surge in public support before it diminished during the 2025 federal election campaign, mentioned that the Official Opposition is currently experiencing its lowest polling figures in nearly ten years, with the Liberals leading by 14 points.
“It’s about effectively managing the voices within your party who oppose collaboration with Team Canada and are uneasy with some of the Liberal actions,” he added.
‘Difficult’ discussions encouraged: Conservative MP
Just last week, members within the party expressed surprise when Poilievre’s MP, Jamil Jivani, publicly advocated for a less confrontational approach in relations with the U.S.
“In the current climate, Canadians who disagree with the Liberals on policy are being labeled traitors, while those who should be providing an alternative to the Liberals are instead seeking to appease those in power,” Jivani stated in a video posted on his social media channels, positioned in front of a Canadian flag.
Describing himself as a former university roommate of U.S. Vice-President JD Vance, Jivani likened the Liberals’ trade war strategy to their largely unchallenged management of the COVID-19 pandemic, while promoting a stronger relationship with the U.S.
“We need you to remain steadfast, uphold your determination, and resist pressures to think there’s only one solution to our nation’s issues,” he urged.
While he did not specifically name Poilievre, his message was evidently clear to Dimitri Soudas, who served as spokesperson for former Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper.
“There was not a single word criticizing Donald Trump, nor a word praising Pierre Poilievre. Sometimes, a politician’s choice of silence speaks volumes,” Soudas noted on X.
Former Alberta Premier Jason Kenney, who was in Harper’s cabinet when Poilievre was also a member, shared a similar perspective.
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“[Jivani] attempts to undermine Pierre’s significant trip by sharing a self-serving video portraying himself as a martyr, without showing any appreciation for his leader’s initiatives,” Kenney remarked on X.
However, if there is a strategy to address Jivani’s stance, Poilievre did not disclose it on Tuesday.
“We embrace a variety of perspectives from all over the country,” stated the party’s industry critic, Adam Chambers, in an interview with CBC News ahead of the caucus meeting.
“If a party is not engaging in tough discussions, then I don’t believe they are having the right conversations.”
Coletto indicated that “not restraining [Jivani]” is a tactic to “navigate the diversity and complexity” of the Conservative coalition. However, he added it also highlights “the challenge that Mr. Poilievre faces regarding the Trump issue in Canada.”
Further complicating the situation, later that Tuesday, Harper, who endorsed both Poilievre’s leadership campaign in 2022 and election campaign last year, was in Toronto for Carney’s investment summit.
Harper acknowledged that it “must have been a very tough decision” for Carney to step back from U.S. trade negotiations, but expressed his belief that there was no alternative. He also praised the federal government for expediting major project approvals and expressed optimism regarding efforts to reduce reliance on the U.S.
Stephen Harper, the last federal Conservative leader to form government, spoke at Prime Minister Mark Carney’s investment summit on Tuesday. (Nathan Denette/The Canadian Press)
When questioned whether the presence of the only modern Conservative Prime Minister at Carney’s event undermined his message, Poilievre responded that “it does not,” and mentioned he had spoken with his party’s former leader a few days earlier.
“Certainly, Conservatives are always ready to prioritize Canada, and we will collaborate with anyone,” he stated.
Yet, as additional challenges arise for the party, there are uncertainties regarding who will align with him.
Vote on separation approaching
In British Columbia, the provincial Conservatives have been losing MLAs, similar to the trend of federal MPs who have exited Poilievre’s ranks over the past year.
Additionally, the upcoming referendum in Alberta, scheduled for just over a month, will require voters to decide whether they wish to stay part of Canada or to eventually consider secession.
In contrast to Carney, Poilievre has already delivered two major speeches in Alberta advocating for unity. However, unlike Carney, he must also consider the power dynamics for his party within the province. According to Coletto’s polling, nearly half of Conservative voters in Alberta sympathize with the separatist viewpoint.
“If he aspires to become Prime Minister of Canada, he cannot be perceived as a separatist,” Coletto stated.
Poilievre’s provincial counterpart, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, may have experienced firsthand the consequences of a political party being perceived as too closely aligned with the sovereignty movement, as evidenced by the recent award of a seat in a traditionally conservative Calgary riding to the Alberta NDP during a provincial byelection this week.
This represents yet another challenge for Poilievre’s coalition during a fall session where the agenda is already at risk of overshadowing his party.