Three major Canadian banks expressed optimistic views on the economy, in contrast to the concerns raised by numerous smaller businesses dealing with the impact of a trade war with the United States. Royal Bank of Canada, Toronto-Dominion Bank, and CIBC disclosed their financial results ahead of the opening bell on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Collectively, these banking giants hold up to $6 trillion in assets, including diverse loan portfolios for consumers and businesses in Canada and the U.S., giving them a unique perspective on the tariff implications.
RBC CEO Dave McKay highlighted the resilience of the Canadian economy, noting improvements in employment and GDP in the second quarter, maintaining a cautiously positive outlook for future growth. He pointed out that while Canada and the U.S. have not reached a long-term resolution, the average effective tariff rate remains low at around six percent, with the majority of exports remaining duty-free.
TD Bank’s CEO Raymond Chun mentioned a potential “super cycle” of investment in Canada, driven by government spending on infrastructure and national defense. With over $1 trillion in approved projects by Ottawa and the provinces through 2035, Chun emphasized the ongoing investment opportunities in Canada.
CIBC CEO Harry Culham expressed confidence in the latter part of 2026, highlighting the evolving trade landscape. CIBC’s chief risk officer, Frank Guse, emphasized the bank’s vigilance in monitoring the Canadian labor market for any signs of weakness.
A study by Oxford Economics for the Canadian American Business Council indicated that over 100,000 Canadian jobs could be at risk if the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) were to be eliminated. BMO Capital Markets projected a potential half-percentage point reduction in Canadian growth due to the latest U.S. tariffs, primarily impacting business confidence and investment.
National Bank’s CEO Laurent Ferreira also commended the resilience of Canada’s economy and praised government initiatives to support workers and businesses affected by the trade tensions. He specifically mentioned positive developments in energy, power infrastructure, and the icebreaker ship contract announcement in Quebec.
Bank of Montreal and Scotiabank CEOs separately characterized the Canada-U.S. trade war as manageable. Meanwhile, shares of major Canadian banks on the Toronto Stock Exchange continue to trade near record highs, with the BMO Equal Weight Banks Index ETF surging nearly 50 percent in the past year.