After Andy Burnham expressed interest in competing in the Gorton and Denton by-election, Keir Starmer was left with difficult decisions to make. Allowing Burnham to run posed the risk of fueling speculation about a potential leadership challenge, as only MPs are eligible to stand for the leadership position.
Furthermore, the possibility of facing an unexpected mayoral by-election in Greater Manchester, amidst challenging elections in Scotland, Wales, and English councils in May, added to the dilemma. Poor results in these elections could pose a significant threat to Starmer, with Burnham and other contenders eyeing the top leadership role.
The alternative option, which the Prime Minister opted for, was to prevent Burnham from running, citing the financial burden on taxpayers and the diversion of party resources from the upcoming May elections. While this move averted an immediate threat, it could have severe long-term consequences.
Following the announcement, MPs expressed anger, accusing the Labour ruling body of orchestrating a stitch-up. Burnham could potentially become a symbol for disgruntled backbenchers who view the decision as excessive control from Downing Street.
The Parliamentary party has already exhibited signs of rebellion by pressuring the Government into multiple U-turns. Antagonizing them further will only complicate Starmer’s position.
Prior to the decision, a minister suggested privately that allowing Burnham to run would have been a stronger move, and by blocking him, Starmer might appear weakened.
With aggressive briefings against potential leadership challengers like Wes Streeting and the exclusion of Burnham from returning to Westminster, opinions vary on the motives behind these actions, with many leaning towards perceiving them as signs of weakness.
Supporters of the Prime Minister argue that the decision regarding Burnham should quell internal conflicts that the public finds tiresome. However, until Starmer can improve Labour’s declining poll ratings, doubts about his future are likely to persist.
While Burnham has his critics, some argue that his pursuit of personal ambitions may overshadow the interests of the people of Greater Manchester who elected him recently. Despite unsuccessful attempts at the Labour leadership in the past, Burnham remains a popular figure, earning the moniker “King of the North” during the pandemic.
Although Labour secured a comfortable victory in Gorton in 2024, the party faces a challenge in retaining the seat as Reform intensifies its efforts to cause an upset, while the Greens target votes from the left. Burnham has cautioned about the repercussions of blocking his candidacy on the election outcome.
If Labour were to lose the upcoming by-election, the consequences would be severe.