The El Niño weather phenomenon is expected to strengthen further until 2027 and could become the most powerful yet, heightening the likelihood of extreme weather in the coming year, as announced by the World Meteorological Organization on Thursday.
Secretary-General Celeste Saulo of the WMO stated during a Geneva press briefing that if the current trend continues, this El Niño event could surpass any previous occurrences since monitoring began, surpassing the usual measurements used over the past four decades.
The UN weather agency revealed that their projections indicate a nearly 100% chance that El Niño will persist until February 2027, driven by exceptionally elevated temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. This high level of certainty is unprecedented according to the WMO.
A robust El Niño can significantly alter global precipitation and temperature patterns, potentially leading to extreme weather occurrences such as typhoons.
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres remarked, “El Niño is escalating visibly. Scientific evidence leaves no room for skepticism: the planet is entering uncharted territories, and these territories are heating up.”
El Niño is characterized by periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific due to weakening trade winds. It occurs naturally every two to seven years, typically lasting up to 12 months and causing intense rainfall and droughts across Latin America.
The current El Niño event has already impacted tropical regions’ soft commodities, triggering a severe food crisis in Central America’s Dry Corridor.
The WMO anticipates the peak of this El Niño towards the end of the current year. However, its effects are projected to extend into 2027, leading to higher global temperatures next year, as mentioned by Saulo.
Saulo also highlighted the WMO’s increased focus on readiness and early warning systems in preparation for the ongoing situation.
“We are fully dedicated to collaborating with partners across the United Nations and humanitarian sectors to provide necessary climate intelligence and insights to support disaster response and climate-sensitive industries like agriculture, health, energy, and water resources,” she emphasized.